World Economic Forum 2008

El blog de Davos

No tan bien

Davos en Chile.

Según el informe "Benchmarking National Attractiveness for Private Investment in Latin American Infrastructure", del World Economic Forum, no nos va tan bien como dicen Kirchner y Nofal:

The Infrastructure Quality Gap Index

Rank Country Score
1 Bolivia 6.7
2 Peru 5.5
3 Colombia 4.9
4 Venezuela 4.5
5 Brazil 4.4
6 Guatemala 4.2
7 Uruguay 4.1
8 Dominican Rep. 3.8
9 Argentina 3.8
10 Mexico 2.7
11 El Salvador 2.5
12 Chile 1.4

Argentina

In terms of its environment’s attractiveness for private investment in infrastructure, Argentina is ranked 9th within the country sample, underperforming Chile and the regional average in almost all dimensions.

In particular, the track record on private investment in infrastructure, at 2.01 (out of 7), represents, quite predictably, the biggest hindrance to the country’s potential to attract private investors, with one of the highest percentages of projects distressed or cancelled (44%) and what seems to be a habit of the government to terminate contracts without reasonable compensation (2.00); public ethics, at 2.33, is assessed as rather poor, with widespread diversion of public funds (2.49), irregular payments in connection to the awarding of public contracts (3.15), favouritism in decisions of public officials (2.21) and low levels of trust in the financial honesty of politicians (1.47). In addition, the dispute settlement system (3.09) and regulatory efficiency (3.34) are not up to international standards, coupled with a relatively low degree of application and speed of rulings (3.00) and quite important levels of red tape and bureaucracy (2.49).

Macroeconomic stability, with a score of 2.58, remains a concern notwithstanding the progress made in recent years. Even though the country is currently experiencing solid growth, the high volatility of GDP over the past decade (see Figure 4), has been significantly and negatively impacting highlyleveraged infrastructure projects. Other areas of relative weakness are to be found in the scarce degree of readiness of the government to deal with and manage private investment in infrastructure and the government and society dimension, the degree of satisfaction and approval of public companies’ privatization is quite low (1.93) and the indicators on the willingness to pay point to important cost recovery risks, with an important degree of tax evasion in the formal sector (3.00), a relatively large informal market (2.85) and pervasive subsidies (2.96).

Even though Argentina displays one of the lowest infrastructure gaps (3.77) in the region (ranking 9th out of 12 countries), pointing to an already fairly developed infrastructure network, especially ports (2.33). This is essentially the result of considerable investments made during the 1990s before many infrastructure projects were cancelled or distressed as a consequence of the macroeconomic crisis. It is only a matter of time before the quality of infrastructure starts to suffer from insufficient investments. Therefore, it is imperative to put the improvement of the investment environment at the top of the national agenda and to adopt all the necessary measures and policies to make private investors, national and international alike, feel confident to invest in long-term projects in the country.

On a more positive note, Argentina displays a relatively good macro attractiveness (4.87), with adequate GDP growth rates (3.94%) and a satisfactory pool of qualified labour, thanks to a relatively large number of local scientists (4.44) and engineers and the relative ease of hiring foreign labour (5.15). Argentina also scores rather well in selected variables of the ease of access to information pillar, relating mainly to the development of e-government services, the availability of statistics publications and openness of dialogue and decisionmaking process.

Lastly, Argentina displays the second most sophisticated bond markets (4.60) and fairly developed pension funds (4.46).

Aire caliente

Más sobre el tema de ayer.

Primero Clarín con la pelota flotando en el aire y sin arquero la tira a la tribuna. ¡Una repregunta, por favor!

Después el mismo diario nos recuerda el pasado Kirchnerista con los grandes inversores internacionales en Davos.

Por último la agencia argentobolivariana de propaganda hace un copy paste.

Nofal: "Los inversores quieren saber cómo se sostiene el crecimiento"

—¿Es difícil promocionar a la Argentina?

—No, porque hay un gran reconocimiento internacional.

Davos: de los Alpes suizos a la Cordillera

Los dirigentes del WEF son cautos. Y creen que los buenos resultados vendrán si se hacen reformas."Una burocracia ineficiente e instituciones débiles, son las asignaturas pendientes".

Aún no logró el sí de la Argentina. Desde que asumió Kirchner, los funcionarios jamás asistieron a las reuniones de Davos. Lozoya no pierde las esperanzas: cree que Beatriz Nofal, con la misión de buscar inversores, será de la partida.

Para Beatriz Nofal, "en cinco años el mundo estará hablando del milagro económico argentino"

(Telam decidió cubrir el reportaje de Clarín, y no el de La Nación, que intentó apretarla un poquito más. )